A meeting of the heads of government of the CIS takes place today in Chisinau. It is the second such meeting in the history of the organization. A long-term economic development strategy is to be passed there, which should prop up the shaky alliance of post-Soviet states. There is another detail that makes today's summit interesting. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is visiting Chisinau for the first time since 2003, when the plan he had approved for a settlement in Transdniestria collapsed. Kommersant special correspondent Vladimir Solovyev was curious to see if Putin had forgiven Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin yet.
The ambitious document that the commonwealth's prime ministers came to Chisinau to put the final touches has already been approved by the presidents of the member states. The strategy is for the states to do everything in 12 years that they have been talking about for 17, since the organization was founded. That includes a free trade zone, a single economic space, a common agricultural market and a network of international transportation corridors. All of that, in turn, is to rally the CIS, which has seen better days by far. After the war in August, Georgia departed from the organization. Uzbekistan's withdrawal from the Eurasian Economic Community also sent a shock wave through the CIS. Tashkent sent a deputy prime minister to the meeting in Chisinau. Thus, today's meeting promises to mark a new beginning or the beginning of the end of the CIS.
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin must have mixed feelings about Chisinau. He celebrated his 50th birthday there at a summit of heads of state in 2002, when he was president of Russia. Chisinau is also the city in which, a year later, the "Kozak memorandum," a plan to settle the conflict between Moldova and the breakaway republic of Transdniestria, failed and Voronin refused to sign it, as massed protesters burned Russian flags and portraits of Putin on the streets. Putin was to come to witness the signing of the document. Moldova announced a plan for its integration into Europe. Russia avenged itself by banning Moldovan wine and jacking up natural gas prices for the country. The countries made up recently after Voronin changed course again. He has renounced all plans for NATO membership and even hinted at the possibility of leaving GUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova), which is perceived as an anti-Russian organization.
Putin arrived in Chisinau late yesterday evening. He was greeted at the airport by Moldovan Prime Minister Zinaida Greceanii, although all of the other arriving guests were met by Moldovan Foreign Minister Andrei Stratan. Putin will have meetings with Greceanii and Voronin today. Transdniestria will be the main topic of conversation. The opposition Liberal Party also prepared for Putin's visit. The day of his arrival, about 100 people gathered in front of the Russian embassy holding signs that read "Putin go home and take Voronin with you," "We want Europe, not occupation," and so on.
Yesterday's demonstration was tiny compared to what Christian Democratic Party leader (and now deputy speaker of the parliament) Iurie Rosca organized in 2003, but Russia needs to help recalling its diplomatic defeat at that time. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Ivanov still mentions the Kozak memorandum when he speaks of a Transdniestrian settlement, and Russia was able to bring Voronin and Transdniestrian President Igor Smirnov together at the negotiating table in April of this year. After the war in August, Russia's redoubled it peacemaking efforts in Transdniestria. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev held individual conversations with Voronin and Smirnov at the end of August and beginning of September and stated that Russia is determined to settle the conflict on the basis of Moldova's territorial integrity.
The Kremlin wanted to show Transdniestria that it need not take inspiration from the example of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which Russia recognized. Kommersant sources say the Kremlin's plans are to bring Voronin and Smirnov together one more time, and then they are to sign a joint statement on principles for a settlement in Medvedev's presence. After that, special status will be worked for Transdniestria and an international legal document will be drafted declaring Moldova's permanent political neutrality and, most importantly, that it will never join NATO. Those plans are not proceeding smoothly. Voronin and Smirnov state their willingness to meet and, at the same time, accuse each other of being uncooperative.
Chisinau and its ruling Communist Party and hoping the Russian prime minister's visit will get the settlement back on course. There will be parliamentary elections in Moldova in March on which the choice of the next president depend. Putin can deliver what Chisinau wants. The question is whether he wants to. Russia's recent actions would indicate that Voronin has been forgiven for not signing the Kozak memorandum. He has been received in the Kremlin and has appeared on Russian television. After that he was interviewed by several Russian newspapers as well.
A high-placed source in the Moldovan leadership told Kommersant, "Everything still depends on Russia. After the Georgian events, it was an excellent moment to solve the problem, and the West would have accepted it. Russia would have won too, showing that it can solve territorial conflicts through diplomacy. Those opportunities are not lost yet." Moscow is letting it be known that a settlement agreement may not be reached by March. "It's a delicate issue and it shouldn't be mixed with politics," a source in the Russian presidential administration said. Rosca is not hopeful either. "Russia might propose anything. But it seems to me that it is more cautious now because it doesn't need new diplomatic failures," he commented.
Source: Kommersant, Russia
Vladimir Solovyev
