GERMANY'S eastern neighbours have long memories and short fuses. They worry about everything from revanchism to deals done with Russia over their heads. But the old cocktail of guilt (for the war) and gratitude (for the Soviet role in German unification) is losing its kick. Germany is now more sceptical about Russia and more focused on its neighbours.
One reason is business. The Czech Republic buys more German exports than Russia. Add Poland, Slovakia and Hungary, and central Europe accounts for nearly a tenth of Germany's foreign trade. Exports in the first half of 2010 were €41 billion ($56 billion), against only €11 billion to Russia; imports were €40 billion, against €15 billion from Russia (including energy).
Diplomacy is changing too. Under Gerhard Schröder and Helmut Kohl, Germany sought tight ties with Russia. Under Angela Merkel, relations are still cordial, but Poland has become a lot more important. Teamwork has replaced sniping about history. This month the Polish and German foreign ministers, Radek Sikorski and Guido Westerwelle, went to Minsk to tell the autocratic regime in Belarus that holding a fair presidential election on December 19th would bring big benefits, whereas pollrigging would keep the country in the cold. Poland's moral weight matches German muscle in such diplomacy, says Eugeniusz Smolar, a Polish foreign-policy analyst. "Germany without Poland doesn't have the credibility. Poland without Germany doesn't have the clout."
Germany keeps talking privately to Russia, sometimes (as in the recent Deauville summit) with France. That can raise hackles. But the Germans argue that their approach is pragmatic. In response to Russian demands to be taken seriously, Germany has suggested treating Moldova, Europe's poorest country, as a test-case. The problem there dates from 1992, when Russian-backed separatists took control of Transdniestria. Unlike similar conflicts in the Caucasus, nobody is killed and both sides talk and trade. Yet Kremlin stubbornness and meddling has stymied peace plans. Russia says its troops protect local Slavs from domination not just by the Romanian-speaking majority, but also by Romania (to which Moldova once belonged). Cynics note that the muddled customs regime in the breakaway region is lucrative for outsiders and insiders alike.
German pressure has already produced results, confounding old hands who thought only America counted. A closed railway has reopened. Direct telephone links may be next. Dangling the carrot of entry into the Schengen passport-free travel zone, Germans persuaded Romania to approve a long-stalled border deal with Moldova. President Traian Basescu and other politicians in Bucharest sometimes treat their neighbour as a stray province, not a proper country. The move may now dispel an irredentist bogeyman often cited by separatists. Hawks still worry that Germany is scheming, perhaps to bring Russia into a joint security body with the European Union, but most people are just glad to see any progress.
Germany is also working on a deal between Macedonia and Greece (which claims both names as Hellenic patrimony). This is another issue that lay long and fruitlessly in American hands. Germany's quiet new diplomacy may be a harbinger of a new era in Europe's politics. (The Economist)
